Updated thru 3/23/2106 1/2/2018
Part one outlined the argument and provided some critiques. This post will continue the discussion and provide a note on the Kuzari argument.
‘Judaism’ is a very old religion, amongst the oldest surviving. Religions evolved over time. The claim that Orthodox Judaism is essentially the same religion as given at Mt. Sinai is so contrary to every single thing we know about religion, society and culture that it should be treated with the utmost skepticism and rejected outright unless there is overwhelming evidence that it is true.
The Judaism of the ancient Israelites is almost certainly not the same Judaism of any Jewish denomination around today. Even if there was an Avraham Avinu (Abraham), he did not invent a religion from scratch. The idea of gods and how to worship them predate him. Nor did Judaism start at an [alleged] Mt Sinai event since some Torah commands predate it and there was a prior relationship between the Jews and El/Yahweh before that date. The same is true for many other religions, there are probably several African, Asian, North and South Native American religions that have prehistoric roots. Also for example when did Christianity start ? With ‘Jesus’ or with Paul or some other founder ? I would argue no. Christianity had it’s roots in preceeding religions, including Judaism which had it’s roots in etc: The same would apply to Islam.
When some Rabbis advocate the Kuzari argument and claim religions require a giver or founder they are either lying or ignorant. Some religions may have a founder others do not. And ‘Judaism’ has a fare number of potential ‘founders’ as mentioned in my discussion of the Kuzari argument.
{ETA 1/2/2018 I need to add the obvious. Thousands of religions, myths, legends etc; have no known founder. Consider those from native American Indians, African tribes, ancient near east cultures, ancient Europeans etc: etc: }
Here are some old religions from the book Charts of World Religions by H. Wayne House 2006
Chart 8
Hinduism c.1800 BC - founder unknown or none
Zoroastrianism c. 1300 BC founder - Zarathustra
Shinto c. 600 BC founder unknown or none. [However per World Religions MacMillan Compendium page 995 - regarding Shintoism - it has no founder with the exception of several sects. ]
{ETA 3/9/2016 And from the book The Great Religions of the Modern World - E.J. Jurji editor, 1947. Beginning on page 141 - Shintoism lies at the center of an intense nationalism. “For some two thousand years it has furnished an interwoven system of beliefs and ceremonies whereby the Japanese people have dramatized and suported the chief interests of their national life.” IT IS THE ONLY EXAMPLE ON EARTH TODAY OF AN ANCIENT TRIBAL FAITH THAT HAS SURVIVED THE CENTURIES AND LIVED ON INTO THE PRESENT AS THE NATIONAL RELIGION OF A CONTEMPORARY STATE. [my capitals. Does this uniqueness imply Shintoism is true ? Does this prove the Japanese gods/spirits has been protecting the Japanese ?
Shintoism shares some beliefs with Judaism including:]
Immortal Soul,
Divinely ordained national destiny,
Guardianship over the nation by the supernatural - for Shinto it is the eternal ancestral spirits,
Efficacy of Prayer and Offerings
The presence of invisible gods at shrines.}
[ When was ‘Judaism’ founded - Do we begin with the alleged Abraham ? Or the alleged Sinai revelation ? One or more Jewish Kings or perhaps one or more of the Prophets. Perhaps Ezra ? Abraham according to the chart is 2100 BC and the chart uses that period.]
Hinduism is the third largest religion in the world 762 million (chart 58) and Zoroastrianism has 2.5 million followers (chart 79). Both are of comparable age to Judaism.
[Longevity of a religion is not evidence of the truth of the religion.]
From Encyclopedia of Religion and Society 1998 W. Swatos, Jr (Editor)
Page 226 Hinduism has no recorded founder and has sacred text dating back as far as 1500-1200 BCE.
P 571 Zoroastrianism formed in the early part of the first millennium BCE. “The Judeo - Christian Idea of the Devil was borrowed from Zoroastrianism at the time of the [Jewish] Babylonian exile.” [This is what is called evolution of religion. It is one reason ‘Judaism’ survived - the Jews adopted from surrounding cultures and adapts to them. Another good example of this is Philo and Rambam adapting and adopting Greek Philosophy into Judaism. Today ‘rationalist’ or the more scientifically educated Jews twist themselves into a pretzel attempting to adopt to and adapt to modern scientific ideas to Judaism. I will come back to this notion later.]
{ETA 2/22//2016 From the Book How The Great Religions Began by Joseph Gaer 1951 New and Revised Edition
Beginning on Page 201 “Zoroaster was the first religious leader in the world to teach the belief in an abstract god, a god one could not touch or hear or smell or see.” 300 years after Zoroaster dies, Alexander the Great conquers Persia and sets up the Greek religion. People secretly teach Zoroastrianism to their children. 500 years later Zoroastrianism religion is restored. 400 years later Arabs force a new religion on to them under the threat of death. Some choose death, some accept the new religion, and some flee and practice their own religion in new places. Zoroastrianism prohibits anyone joining their religion; you have to be born into it. [This last requirement should sound familiar to Jews, however Jews do allow converts.]
Beginning page 267 Regarding Judaism - At the time of Cyrus the Zoroastrian Persians were friendly to the Jews and the Jews studied the Persian religion and learned from it. Yahweh the god of several tribes and protector of Israel now becomes the creator of the world, the latter similar to a concept in Zoroastrianism. Jews also learn from Zoroastrian life after death, heaven and hell and carried these beliefs into Judaism. From the Zoroastrianism Saoshyant (redeemer), the Jews invent the coming of their own redeemer and give him additional attributes not found in Zoroastrianism. By the time the Jews return to Israel with the help of Cyrus Judaism had greatly changed.
[The book argues that Zoroastrianism influences Judaism and that argument has merit. But Judaism most likely was also influenced by Egypt and other ancient near east cultures. Cultures that may have influenced Zoroastrianism.]}
So what additional mechanisms (reasons I may not have previously provided - I can not remember) can account for Judaism’s survival ?
A) There is an element of Jewish Tribalism. Also an element of nationalism/patriotism - that Israel is their land given to them by their God.
B) The ‘Jewish’ God can adapt to all sorts of fancies. The State God, The Divine Warrior, The Fertility / Rain Giver God, The Vengeful God, The Loving God, The Mighty God, The Threatening God , The Mystical God, the Redeemer God, The Just God, The Merciful God, The Law Giving God etc: etc: . He can be the Creator God, The Philosopher’s God, The Metaphysical God, The Theologian’s God, The Source of Morals God etc: etc etc. In short, a flavor to suit just about anybody’s taste (except us skeptics and atheists) and in any period of history.
C) Judaism includes a mix of miracles, holidays, magic, amulets, harvest (fertility) festivals, spirits, demons, angels, prayers, incantations, superstitions, holy objects, rituals and souls. There are fascinating legends and myths passed on in the Torah, holy texts and oral traditions. There are alleged holy people who have special powers and abilities. {ETA 2/28/2016 - Some Orthodox Jews give credence to dream visitations from dead ancestors and relatives.} Those provide a sort of mass folk appeal. In addition they create social cohesion and alliances.
D) For the Jewish elitists, they may find refuge in ‘rationalistic’ Judaism, which tends to pooh pooh some of the things mentioned in C), things that have so much folk appeal. Philo and Rambam accommodated Judaism to Greek Philosophy. In more modern times the rationalists try to accommodate Judaism to science ending up twisting themselves into pretzels in the process. Typically these innovators are first disparaged but eventually find a stream where they can fit in and eventually are accepted by most more or less.
E) Eventually Judaism becomes essentially Monotheistic with one God Yahweh. By definition that means no other gods. Polytheists when captured by another ‘tribe’ can readily usually adopt to that new god, so their religion can more readily change and individuals can more easily adopt the new religion. However, the monotheistic Jews would have a difficult time changing their God.
{ETA 2/22/2016 F) Judaism is not monolithic. Part of it's staying power is the numerous denominations ranging from Humanistic Judaism to the numerous sects of Ultra Orthodox. Jews can usually cross from one denomination to another. Again providing a sort of menu. This same situation was most likely true in ancient times - the various forms of the ancient Israelite religions or for example Hellenizing Jews versus the Maccabees.
A mix of stiffness and flexibility characterizes Judaism and this likely plays a role in it's survival. }
{ETA 3/23/2106 Orthodox Jews consider the future resurrection of the dead and the world to come as important principles of Judaism.
From the Book Understanding Judaism - Jacob Neusner Editor- Beginning Page 35 The [Rabbinic Jewish] belief in the world to come with it’s concomitant belief in bodily resurrection is an importation from Zoroastrian civilization. Both stem from non Jewish sources. }
The essential ideas of A) thru F) most likely provide staying power for Christianity and Islam.
Related Posts Proof of God from Prophecy , Proof of God from Israel , The Tenacity of Unreasonable Beliefs
Updated thru 10/31/2015
Being that we are in the Halloween season 2015, this macabre and ghoulish Proof for G-d seemed most appropriate to discuss.
The Proof The Trick
Basically the proof argues that dead holy Jewish sages (or the righteous) have not decomposed like other ordinary beings. They have had special supernatural protection.
Response The Treat
It has been found that under certain conditions dead people and dead animals can become preserved. These conditions may occur naturally by accident or may be deliberate. Are found preserved animals also holy ? Are all found ancient preserved people also holy ?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mummy Self-mummification - “Monks whose bodies remain incorrupt without any traces of deliberate mummification are venerated by some Buddhists who believe they successfully were able to mortify their flesh to death.”
There are many examples of non Jewish people resisting decomposition after death. (Search the Web - for example http://mentalfloss.com/article/58170/5-bodies-refused-rot http://muttermuseum.org/exhibitions/the-soap-lady There are many other examples.)
{ETA 10/14/2015 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xin_Zhui Xin Zhui (206 BC – 220 AD). “She gained fame more than 2,000 years after her death, when her tomb was discovered inside a hill known as Mawangdui, in Changsha, Hunan, China. After opening the tomb, workers discovered her exceptionally preserved remains alongside hundreds of valuable artifacts and documents.” “Xin Zhui's body was remarkably preserved. Her skin was soft and moist, with muscles that still allowed for her arms and legs to flex at the joints.” So was this Chinese noble that enjoyed an extravagant lifestyle also such a righteous / holy person that her body received divine protection ? Notice after she was exposed from her tomb her deterioration rate increases requiring intervention.}
Cool Conditions, Dry Conditions, Bogs, Sand, Chemicals, Lack of air and Adipocere are some of the accidental or deliberate ways a dead body may resist decay. {ETA 10/14/2015 "All human bodies and body parts disintegrate with time unless they are preserved with embalming fluids or waxes, or by special conditions such Otzi the Iceman of Bolzano as alkaline soil, absence of oxygen, bacteria, worms, heat, light, and the like. There are many cases of such burials and bodies, known as adipocere. Some corpses are "saponified (in which burial in lime-impregnated soil converts the body fat into a hard soap that resists putrefaction)" "; From an article - the link is provided at the end of this post}
We must also rule out any possible natural explanation - including: fraud, false reporting, incomplete or inaccurate reporting, misunderstood reports, or deliberate or accidental use of body preserving techniques that may have been used.
Religious people need to provide scientific evidence that holy sages are resistant to decomposition. This could include double blind studies. Until they do so we reject the hypothesis that holy people resist decomposition as compared to other people.
It is also an example of confirmation bias. For example when a particular holy person is found preserved that example is touted while the vast vast majority of holy sages have decomposed just like anybody else.
It is also an argument from ignorance. Just because we can not explain a phenomena we can not conclude supernatural being(s) are involved. Maybe if we studied the phenomena a bit more natural explanations may arise.
ETA Came across an article that confirms some of what I have been writing about http://skepdic.com/incorrupt.html
ETA Like the non decomposing dead bodies, many proofs for supernatural beings do not decay away despite the numerous stakes driven thru them. Evidence of Zombies ?
ETA 10/18/2015 - Some people have seen recent photographs of say a preserved saint in a pristine condition. These photos are of the saints after they have been conditioned with wax or in other ways to make them look pristine. When they were originally exhumed they did not look as pretty and in fact after being exhumed their rate of decay increased. If they had supernatural protection why did their rate of decay increase after being exhumed ? It was their burial environment that kept them preserved and after being exhumed those conditions were gone.
ETA 10/31/2015 Before we can even begin to entertain the possibility of alleged perfect (or imperfect) preserved body being evidence of supernatural, the body immediately after being exhumed and the conditions of the body's gravesite need to be examined by scientists to rule out natural causes. To my knowledge this has never been done.)
Updated 2/9/2015 ; Updated 2/27/2016 to add a link to amazing military victories.
Essentially the proof is something like this:
The rise of the State of Israel in 1948, over 2000 years since the Jews lost independent statehood, is so remarkable that God must be involved. Moreover, it was a fulfillment of Bible prophecy.
For refutes to the above See both Proof of God from Jewish Survival, Suffering and the Bible Predictor and Proof of God from Prophecy
A related argument is Israel's victory in the 1948 Arab- Israeli was due to a miracle.
Let me preface this discussion by saying my intent is not to denigrate the brave, heroic, resourceful Israeli soldiers, nor the sacrifices they and others made during the war of Independence. Nor should this be construed as taking sides against Israel. My only goal is to determine the degree to which we can attribute supernatural involvement in the war.
Was Israel’s victory in the War of Independence a miracle ?
I may reply throughout history there have been occasional significant military upsets where the ‘underdog’ wins or holds out much longer than expected against overwhelming odds. Here are just three examples:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Annual
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winter_War
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Thermopylae
Are not those battles amazing miracles ?
{ETA 2/27/2016 Came across this list of many amazing military victories see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_military_disasters }
Remarkable military events do occur in history and they do not require invoking supernatural beings for explanations. Sometimes even chance can play a role.
Moreover, experts have provided numerous reasons for the success of Israel during the war, negating the need to cite supernatural intervention.
"On May 14, [1948] the State of Israel was proclaimed and immediately recognized by the Soviet Union and the United States. On the following day, as the British announced the end of their mandate in Palestine, the armies of Egypt, Transjordan, Syria, Lebanon, and Iraq entered the country with an estimated total of 21,500 troops - no match for Israel's estimated 65,000. Within less than a month the failure of the Arab intervention became certain."
Source History of Syria and Palestine page 961 Encyclopaedia Britannica volume 17, 15th edition 1974
A different evaluation of the relative number of troops and a more balanced view is found in the Yoev Gelber link below
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During WWII there were thousands of well trained Jewish soldiers who fought on the side of the Allies, including the British trained Jewish Brigade. Some of those soldiers assisted in the formation of Israel.
{ Jewish Ghetto fighters from WWII also assisted Israel}
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From our great Jewish Leader Golda Meir (http://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Golda_Meir)
- We have always said that in our war with the Arabs we had a secret weapon — no alternative. The Egyptians could run to Egypt, the Syrians into Syria. The only place we could run was into the sea, and before we did that we might as well fight.
- As quoted in LIFE magazine (3 October 1969), p. 32
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Israel Studies An Anthology: The Israeli-Arab War of 1948
by Yoav Gelber (July 2009) found at this link http://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/jsource/isdf/text/gelber.html provides a good discussion of some of the issues. Here are some excerpts
"In war, the stronger belligerent almost always wins and the Israeli War of Independence was no exception to this rule. A detailed examination of the balance of power reveals that throughout most of the war, excluding the period from the outset of the invasion on May 15 until the first truce in June 1948 the Jews were superior in personnel, equipment, logistics and organization. However, in the first month after the invasion the Arab armies enjoyed a considerable superiority in the air, artillery and light armor.
Moreover, the Jewish troops were exhausted after six months of combat and had already sustained heavy losses in manpower and equipment. By contrast, the invading Arab formations were fresh and complete. Nonetheless, even at this stage, the expeditionary forces and their local auxiliaries were quantitatively inferior to the Yishuv’s mobilized manpower. Throughout the rest of the war, the Haganah and the IDF remained stronger both qualitatively and quantitatively.
This statement deserves an explanation. As in most statistics, a comparison here is unfair. The figures on the Israeli side include the entire military to the last clerk of the Second Echelon. The Arab troops dispatched to Palestine consisted of combat and combat-support troops while their logistic infra-structures, GHQs and base depots remained behind. In a comparison of the numbers of combatants and fighting-support troops, adding the Palestinian auxiliaries to the Arab expeditions, the Israeli superiority would shrink considerably and the ratio would be close to equality."
“The Israeli narrative of “few against many” has been based on popular myth. Ben-Gurion had denied it during the war and repeated the denial long after it ended. Nonetheless, this popular narrative reflected an authentic anxiety in the Yishuv.”
“.... Israel’s military superiority was still insufficient to explain the final outcomes of the war. Ultimately, the enormous Jewish advantage laid in the social, organizational and technical infrastructure behind the troops and the successful transformation and application of these factors in the military sphere.”
--------------------------------------------
A History of Modern Israel Colin Shindler 2008
Beginning Page 44 Israel feared annihilation if they failed. Arab Invading force - 22000 to 28000 troops + several thousand irregulars. Israel -fielded 27000 to 30000 troops plus a home guard of 6000 and 2000-3000 Irgun. Arabs had overwhelming superiority of aircraft and heavy weaponry.
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A History of Israel - Sachar 1996
P 317 - By May 12 - Israel mobilized 30000, not much smaller than Arabs. Arabs have superior fire power plus an air force. But Jews have better military experience and are dedicated. Israel has other military advantages. For example - Israel’s Yigael Yadin who had expert knowledge of the terrain. The Jews were excellent street fighters. Arabs also had other advantages as well.
The book explains the overall poor training, or poor motivation, or poor morale of most of the Arab armies.
Page 325 June 11, 1948 - truce. By this date Israel has been fighting a bit under 4 weeks since the start of the entrance of the Arab armies into the war, and during this truce many new recruits, fighter planes, bombers, armaments and more come into Israel.
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Under Fire Israels 20 year Struggle for Survival 1968 Donald Robinson Editor
Beginning Page 91 How Israel won the War of Independence 1948-1949 by George Herald
Egyptians - brave but poorly trained.
To avoid being bombed to death Israel had underground shelters including at least one with an underground hospital. [I recall reading another source that Israel had safe munitions factories, some antitank and some anti aircraft weapons.]
Israelis- obstinate courage, surprise commando raids. Had made better use of psychological tactics such as bluffing and propaganda.
Israelis - a long tradition of self defense and military leaders and trainers since at least 1907.
During the siege of Jerusalem Fritzel developed a superior range mortar, perhaps the longest range available. Brigadier Dori - “God knows whether we would have won the war if Fritzel had not developed the superior mortar”.
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Mordechai Bar-On an Israeli Company commander says Israelis victory as a divine miracle is a false image. He goes on to explain why. (Beginning Page 37 Making Israel 2007 - Edited by Benny Morris).
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Avi Shlaim - “The final outcome of the wars was thus not a miracle but a faithful reflection of the underlying Arab-Israeli military balance.” (Beginning Page 134 Making Israel 2007 - Edited by Benny Morris).
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To summarize some history I have read, and reasons I have read for Israel’s success.
Israel initially had a big disadvantage - virtually a non existent air force and lack of big fire power, (the Israelis had some anti aircraft weapons and anti tank weapons.) The Arabs had superior air force and fire power, had some geographic strengths such as controlling key arteries. There was probably British Hostility towards Israel. Initially, Israel was at risk of losing the war against the combined armies of the Arabs.
What are some of the factors playing a role in Israel’s victory - Maybe the Fritzel, determination not to be driven into the sea, fighting ability they had developed since early 1900's, external and internal help from WWII and ghetto veterans, superior propaganda and bluffing, ability to get significant human reinforcements - planes- arms, taking calculated but risky operations, shorter communication lines, united politically and militarily. The Arabs were mostly poorly trained, poorly motivated, (lacked military experience ?) , had longer communication and land supply lines, were not coordinated, were not united, had poor military intelligence of the Jewish fighting forces, and had conflicting interests (this is still true today).
The Orthodox Jewish claim that Yahweh is fighting on behalf of Israel, is no different than the claims of other ancient peoples claiming their own god(s) fight on behalf of their own side. For example the Mesha Stele - Moab's god Kemosh fights on Moab's behalf against Israel.
From the book Ancient Israel in the Sinai by Hoffmeier 2005
Beginning on Page 79 "The Egyptians wrote history and understood events in the light of divine planning and intervention."; "Several studies have been made of Mesopotamian Literature to show there was a relationship between history and divine involvement in human affairs."}
Updated 2/27/2015 6/27/2018 4/23/2019
A text or individual makes a 'prophecy' for an event. The event came to occur. Thus the text must be of divine origin or the individual had divine information. Thus, God exists.
(I am using the term God to include something supernatural.)
Related posts are Proof of God from Jewish Survival, Suffering and the Bible Predictor ; Proof of God from Guarantees or Holy Sage Statements ; Proof of God from Israel ; and a series of posts began with Proof of God from Fallow.
Many ancient cultures had 'prophets'.
Section One will discuss the requirements for a text passage(s) or individual statement(s) to qualify as a prophecy. A failure to match any of the requirements disqualifies the text passage(s) or individual statement(s) from being considered evidence of a prophecy. There may be some overlap amongst the requirements.
Section Two will apply the requirements to Bible passages that are claimed by some Orthodox Jews and others proves the Torah is Divine.
Section One - Prophecy requirements
1) Open Ended. The prophecy must not be open ended or something inevitable. For example ‘There will be a great flood in China.' Given enough time a flood may occur in China.
2) Vagueness. The event being prophesied cannot be vague. The event must not be subject to retroactive interpretation so that many different outcomes may fit the event. For example 'a great war will erupt in Europe.' Many great wars could qualify.
3) Impressiveness. The prophecy must be impressive. For example. ‘A great ruler Joe will arise in the North America'. Joe is a common name and given enough time a Joe (or a variant of the name Joe) may become a ruler someplace in North America. By luck or chance a 'prophecy' can become fulfilled.
Could a reservoir of available knowledge allow a text or individual to make a prediction that has a good chance of occurring. Consider a geographic region gathering momentum towards becoming independent. If a text or individual makes the prophecy of nationhood that actually does become fulfilled, it would not be impressive. Or consider a nation surrounded by numerous powerful enemies. The prophecy is 'the nation will succumb to a violent destruction.’
4) Prophecy Date. We must be certain the date of the prophecy of an event is made before the event occurred. We must be certain the prophecy was not modified or written after the event.
5) Controllability. The event being predicted cannot be susceptible to being controlled. This is similar to self-fulfilling prophecy wherein there is control of the event's occurrence or the possibility of influencing the chance of it occurring.
6) Fulfillment. A prophecy is made for a certain described event. Yet the outcome does not match the details of the description of the event.
7) False Prophecies. If the text or individual makes many prophecies, were any not fulfilled ? If so, it suggests the non divine nature of the holy text, or the individual lacked supernaturally derived information. It suggests chance may have played a role regarding prophecies that are fulfilled.
8) Intent. It must be certain from the holy text verses or from the individual making the statement that an actual prophecy was intended. Are they just warnings ? Are they just opinions ? Are they propaganda for a certain agenda ? Are they to give hope ? An example - 'If nation XYZ does not worship the nation's God, it will be destroyed.'
9) Fulfillment of contingent conditions. Some prophecies are contingent on fulfillment of certain conditions. Have those conditions been met ? Is it even possible to evaluate if the conditions have been met ?
For example - 'Unless America repents, a disaster will strike it'. How can we evaluate if America repents or not ? What percentage must repent to avoid the disaster ? If the disaster occurs, defenders of the prophecy will say it was because America did not repent. If the disaster does not occur they will say America repented 'enough', or God works in mysterious ways.
{ETA 4/23/2019 10) Recording Bias -see Proof of God From Prophecy Part 4 }
Some times there may be a 'prophecy' about a past event. This would be similar to my Proof of God from Secrets in Holy Texts . We mention here that this kind of backward looking prophecy requires that the 'past event' be something that could not be known to the book or person making the prophecy.
Every ‘prophecy’ offered as evidence of something supernatural suffers from one or more flaws. Some readers may disagree with some of the standards as being too stringent. Considering we are using prophecy to establish supernatural things, stringency is required.
{I have been informed of this write up Prophecy For Dummies which
explains why you too should be skeptical of prophecies and the shenanigans used
by 'prophets' and people arguing for and defending amazing true prophecies. This
just the index so visit the site for the details.
1.
Mission-Critical Principles: the Prophet’s arsenal.
1a. Retroactive Shoehorning: a Prophet’s best
friend.
1b. Vaticinium ex Eventu:
After-the-fact prophecy.
1c. The
Law of Large Numbers: 1 in a million is all you need with a million
prophecies.
1d. Predicting the
Obvious: Case studies in "duh."
1e. False Fulfillment: Don’t let the facts stop
you.
1f. Self-Fulfilling
Prophecies: "They make it possible."
1g. Confirmation Bias: Make them squeal with select
fulfillment.
1h. Wishful Thinking:
Play off their dreams, hopes and fears for greater success.
1i. Dealing with Doubts: Reconciling Prophet Guilt
Syndrome.
1j. Prophecy Aids:
Dressing up both Prophecy and Fulfillment.
2. Damage Control: the general anti-skeptic
FAQ.
2a. Specifics, Dates and
Deadlines: a Prophet’s bane.
2b.
Unfalsifiable Escape Hatches: Preventing demonstrable prophecy
failures.
2c. Unexpected
Difficulties/Apologetics: Apologizing for failed prophecy.
3. Concluding Remarks.
3a. Prophecy Verification Criteria: Avoid getting duped
by other Prophets.}
Section Two - a Sample Torah Prophecy
Some Orthodox Jews and others argue the rise of Modern Israel is fulfillment of a Biblical Prophecy - Deuteronomy 30 - passages cited below.
{Indeed, the rise of Modern Israel after 2000 years appears remarkable. Though this post is about prophecy I will briefly discuss this remarkable event. First related discussion is found in my posts Proof of God from Jewish Survival, Suffering and the Bible Predictor , Proof of God from Israel.
In addition, remarkable historical events do not prove god(s). It would be an argument from ignorance or incredulity. Moreover, there are natural explanations that can account for many remarkable events of history. Discussion providing plausible reasons for the rise of Modern Israel are also found throughout this post.
{Lets read the prescient words and wisdom from one of the greatest Jewish Philosophers
A Theological-Political Treatise [Part I], by Benedict of Spinoza (born 1632) Translator: R. H. M. Elwes
(99) As to their [Jews] continuance so long after dispersion and the loss of empire, there is nothing marvellous in it, for they so separated themselves from every other nation as to draw down upon themselves universal hate, not only by their outward rites, rites conflicting with those of other nations, but also by the sign of circumcision which they most scrupulously observe.
(100) That they have been preserved in great measure by Gentile hatred, experience demonstrates.
(101) When the king of Spain formerly compelled the Jews to embrace the State religion or to go into exile, a large number of Jews accepted Catholicism.
(102) Now, as these renegades were admitted to all the native privileges of Spaniards, and deemed worthy of filling all honourable offices, it came to pass that they straightway became so intermingled with the Spaniards as to leave of themselves no relic
or remembrance.
(103) But exactly the opposite happened to those whom the
king of Portugal compelled to become Christians, for they always, though converted, lived apart, inasmuch as they were considered unworthy of any civic honours.
(104) The sign of circumcision is, as I think, so important, that I could persuade myself that it alone would preserve the nation for ever.
(105) Nay, I would go so far as to believe that if the foundations of their religion have not emasculated their minds they may even, if occasion offers, so changeable are human affairs, raise up their empire afresh, and that God may a second time elect them.
(106) Of such a possibility we have a very famous example in the Chinese.
(107) They, too, have some distinctive mark on their heads which they most scrupulously observe, and by which they keep themselves apart from everyone else, and have thus kept themselves during so many thousand years that they far surpass all other nations in antiquity.
(108) They have not always retained empire, but they have recovered it when lost, and doubtless will do so again after the spirit of the Tartars becomes relaxed through the luxury of riches and pride.
See (105) Spinoza's 'prophecy'}
{ETA 6/27/2018 Note: There have been massive deportations and exiles in history and some involved the eventual return of the 'people'. For example “In May 1944, the entire Crimean Tatar population of Crimea was exiled to Central Asia.” “Today, more than 250,000 Crimean Tatars have returned to their homeland,...” https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimean_Tatars
Another people that have been exiled are Chechens and many of them have returned ‘home’ see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chechens
Page 417 The Anchor Bible Zechariah by Meyers and Meyers 1992 - Regarding 14:2 “Into Exile” However it literally writes “in the exile”. Reflects the practice of deportation of subject peoples or parts thereof by imperial powers. NeoAssyrians perfected it. Used extensively by Babylonians and Persians. Deuteronomy describes the Babylonian conquest. In the exilic and post exilic contexts - a sense that a new age was on the verge of beginning if not already under way. Cyrus’s edict permitting return Judah 538 BCE and temples restoration and redictication in 516/515 BC viewed as mitiation of the future age. A kind of realized eschatology.
[ Regions where ‘deportation’ or scattering of people were not practiced would not result in those sort events occurring. In regions were such practices were imposed we would expect such things to happen. Nothing miraculous about making such a prediction and it occurring. Moreover, there have been scatterings of people other than Jews who eventually come back to their homeland.] }
Deuteronomy 30:1 And it shall come to pass, when all these things are come upon thee, the blessing and the curse, which I have set before thee, and thou shalt bethink thyself among all the nations, whither the LORD thy God hath driven thee, 2 and shalt return unto the LORD thy God, and hearken to His voice according to all that I command thee this day, thou and thy children, with all thy heart, and with all thy soul; 3 that then the LORD thy God will turn thy captivity, and have compassion upon thee, and will return and gather thee from all the peoples, whither the LORD thy God hath scattered thee. 4 If any of thine that are dispersed be in the uttermost parts of heaven, from thence will the LORD thy God gather thee, and from thence will He fetch thee. 5 And the LORD thy God will bring thee into the land which thy fathers possessed, and thou shalt possess it; and He will do thee good, and multiply thee above thy fathers. 6 And the LORD thy God will circumcise thy heart, and the heart of thy seed, to love the LORD thy God with all thy heart, and with all thy soul, that thou mayest live. 7 And the LORD thy God will put all these curses upon thine enemies, and on them that hate thee, that persecuted thee. 8 And thou shalt return and hearken to the voice of the LORD, and do all His commandments which I command thee this day. 9 And the LORD thy God will make thee over-abundant in all the work of thy hand, in the fruit of thy body, and in the fruit of thy cattle, and in the fruit of thy land, for good; for the LORD will again rejoice over thee for good, as He rejoiced over thy fathers; 10 if thou shalt hearken to the voice of the LORD thy God, to keep His commandments and His statutes which are written in this book of the law; if thou turn unto the LORD thy God with all thy heart, and with all thy soul. {S} 11 For this commandment which I command thee this day, it is not too hard for thee, neither is it far off. 12 It is not in heaven, that thou shouldest say: 'Who shall go up for us to heaven, and bring it unto us, and make us to hear it, that we may do it?' 13 Neither is it beyond the sea, that thou shouldest say: 'Who shall go over the sea for us, and bring it unto us, and make us to hear it, that we may do it?' 14 But the word is very nigh unto thee, in thy mouth, and in thy heart, that thou mayest do it. {S} 15 See, I have set before thee this day life and good, and death and evil, 16 in that I command thee this day to love the LORD thy God, to walk in His ways, and to keep His commandments and His statutes and His ordinances; then thou shalt live and multiply, and the LORD thy God shall bless thee in the land whither thou goest in to possess it. 17 But if thy heart turn away, and thou wilt not hear, but shalt be drawn away, and worship other gods, and serve them; 18 I declare unto you this day, that ye shall surely perish; ye shall not prolong your days upon the land, whither thou passest over the Jordan to go in to possess it. 19 I call heaven and earth to witness against you this day, that I have set before thee life and death, the blessing and the curse; therefore choose life, that thou mayest live, thou and thy seed; 20 to love the LORD thy God, to hearken to His voice, and to cleave unto Him; for that is thy life, and the length of thy days; that thou mayest dwell in the land which the LORD swore unto thy fathers, to Abraham, to Isaac, and to Jacob, to give them. {P}
I will argue the alleged prophecy violates or could potentially violate at least one of the prophecy requirements. My list is only a sample of the potential violations.
Violation of 1) Open Ended
Given sufficient duration, a country can lose it’s independence, regain it, lose it again etc:
Violation of 2) Vagueness
Was the prophecy referring to returning from the first exile or some other exile ? See Violation of 4) Prophecy Date
Moreover, there are Chassidic (Ultra Orthodox Jewish) denominations who do not view the rise of Modern Israel as the fulfillment of Torah prophecy. In fact, some of them even whore after and consort with Israel's enemies. This is where theologians will debate and tell us what the Torah 'really' means.
Violation of 4) Prophecy Date
Verse 1 - 'And it shall come to pass, when all these things are come upon thee, the blessing and the curse, which I have set before thee...'
The Torah may have been redacted during the exile and so 'these things' may have already came to pass.
If the Torah was redacted within temporal proximity of the first exile or during the exile, then the promise of eventual return could be propaganda. In fact, the Torah may well be referring to a return from the first exile. This is what many Bible Scholars agree on. I will provide only a sampling.
From the book - Self Fulfilling Prophecy - by Jacob Neusner 1987
Page 1 - Regarding the Exile beginning 586 BC: At the that time the exiles, drew together whatever stories, laws, prophecies and other writings and produced the 5 Books of Moses. The experience of the Exile became part of the Torah in that the promise of the land of Israel is conditional.
Page 20 "It was only after the destruction of the first Temple of Jerusalem in 586 B.C. that the Torah, that is, the five books of Moses, came into being. A pastiche of received stories, some old, some new, all revised for the purpose of the final authors. It was in the aftermath of the destruction of that Temple and the later restoration of the exiles to the land that the authors wrote the origins of Israel, the Jewish people."
"From the exile in Babylon in 586 B.C., the authors of the Torah recast Israel's history into the story of the conditional existence of the people; their existence was measured in their possession of the land on condition of God's favor. Everything depended on carrying out a contract: do this, get that, do not do this, do not get that - and nothing formed a given and nothing was unconditional."
From Jewish Publication Society Deuteronomy Jeffrey Tigay 1996
Page 432 - Discusses Deuteronomy 4:29-31; 30:1-10 and goes on to explain they were probably not part of the original text but were interpolated during the exile to assure the Jews of that time that if they abandon sinning and return to God, he would return them to their homeland.
However, Deut 30 was written before the rise of Modern Israel. And most bible scholars would probably say before the end of the first Exile.
Violation of 5) Controllability
In the ancient near east certain god(s) were often associated with certain regions. This was also true for ancient Israel, but eventually Yahweh/El was freed from a specific region, perhaps as a result of the first exile and destruction of the first Temple. The Jews believed there was a special relationship between the Jews, God, and the promised land. Many still do. After an exile the hope of return developed in full force. It was that hope that leads to self fulfilling prophecy.
It was not that a God had any role in the survival of the 'Jewish' people. Rather the 'Jewish' people's belief in the Torah and God helped preserve them. In other words, it was their belief that eventually God would bring them out of exile/diaspora back to the promised land as per certain Torah passages. The hope that redemption was just around the corner allowed them survive trials and tribulations. The Rabbinic tradition added the promise of rewards in an afterlife. This also provided comfort and hope to survive trials and tribulations. In short, the Priests and Rabbis evolved theology that would help Jews survive.
{Myths and Facts A Guide to the Arab - Israeli Conflict by Mitchell Barb 2006 edition
Page 1 “ A common misperception is that all the Jews were forced into the Diaspora by the Romans after the destruction of the second temple in Jerusalem in the year 70 C.E. and then, 1,800 years later, suddenly returned to Palestine demanding their country back. In reality, the Jewish people have maintained ties to their historic homeland for more than 3,700 years.”
“Even after the destruction of the second Temple in Jerusalem, and the beginning of the exile, Jewish life in the land of Israel continued and often flourished. Large communities were established in Jerusalem and Tiberias by the 9th century....” The book goes on to explain there was uninterrupted Jewish settlement from the time of Joshua onward.
Page 8 - Late 19th century antisemitism in Eastern Europe and Russia stimulate Jewish immigration to Palestine. Simultaneously - a wave of Jews from Yemen, Morocco, Irag, Turkey motivated by the dream of the ‘Return to Zion’ and a fear of intolerance.}
Violation of 6) Fulfillment
Verse 3 - It is likely some of the 10 lost tribes are lost forever. They have not been gathered in as per prophecy. Millions of Jews still reside outside Israel.
Violation of 7) False Prophecies
A valid argument may be made there are ‘prophecies’ in the Tenach that have not been fulfilled. This would require a long post.
Violation of 8) Intent
The Torah is making vague threats and rewards. Some of them are associated with ancient near east contracts. The rewards are most likely meant to influence behavior or give hope. (See Jewish Survival, Suffering and Bible Predictor. Also see above - Tigay and Neusner in Violation of 4), 5)). Though the Jews were in exile, God would redeem them if only they maintained there separateness and returned to the code.
Violation of 9) Fulfillment of Contingent conditions
The rise of modern Israel is inconsistent with the Torah's 'prophecy'.
Verse 2-3 explain that if the Israelites return to the Lord and his laws God he will restore Israel's fortunes. But no such 'teshuva', meaning the return to the Lord and his laws ever occurred ! Rather the rise of Modern Israel was probably the result of long latent and overt anti-semitism in Europe which assisted in the birth of both secular Zionism and the Holocaust. After WWII there were many Jews displaced. The world, especially the powerful post WWII Christian nations thought a Jewish homeland would be a solution. Holocaust guilt and Christian theology likely played a role. Israel would also be a useful ally to the USA.
Continued Proof of God From Prophecy Part 2
This post is inspired by the 2014 conflict between Israel and Gaza. Similar reasoning can be used to refute other such arguments.
Very few Israelis have been killed by the thousand rockets fired by Hamas from Gaza. It must be a miracle and therefore a God (eta which is Yahweh) exists.
We have natural explanations that explain the low death rate and therefore reject this proof of god. Moreover, lucky runs in games of chance occur {eta 8/8/2014 meaning runs of low probability} and these do not prove God exists.
Support for most facts and figures found at end of post.
1) Israel has the sophisticated Iron Dome missile defense system which is 90% effective - it tracks the rocket and lets some fall if risk is low. Some of those rockets are duds.
2) Israel has an early warning system warning civilians who go to mandatory bomb shelters in homes.
3) Laying on the ground provides 80% (or more) decrease for chance of death from a Gaza rocket explosion.
4) Hamas fires technologically poor quality rockets - low payloads (and so the damage they can cause is much reduced) and they have low accuracy. If Hamas fired heavier payloads and with increased accuracy death rates would increase.
5) Many Israelis without shelters or in more hazardous areas temporally relocate to safer locations.
6) In war, from ancient times to modern - many religions and nations have claimed their god has performed a miracle for their team or for them as individuals. People look for explanations and patterns even for random events. It is a human brain problem.
7) And if by chance rockets do land and kill many Israelis will believers say God does not exist ? No, they will make up excuses for God. A good example is the holocaust and all the apologetics.
8) To prove a god is involved we need to compare the probability of god to the probability of people being killed by Gaza rockets. Given Hamas's rocket type, Israel's technology and civilian preparedness the latter probability is probably low. The probability of God is unknown, and arguably zero since we have no empirical evidence for gods and no valid philosophical arguments for gods. Therefore we accept the natural explanations.
9) By random chance Israel may be having a good run. [Persian Gulf War : 46 scuds were fired into Saudi Arabia yet only one Saudi security guard was killed. From http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scud . Should we argue it was Allah protecting Saudi Arabia ? ]
Sources and support ---------------------------------------------From "Israel’s ‘Iron Dome’ changes the face of battle" July 10, 2014 www.washingtonpost.com
"By shooting down more than 90 percent of its targets, the system is ensuring Israel’s decisive technological edge that has helped it operate virtually unhindered in Gaza."
"Iron Dome quickly recognizes the trajectory of incoming rockets and whether they are headed for major population centers. Those are shot down, while others are allowed to fall in empty fields to spare the hefty cost of firing the sophisticated interceptors. Local reports say each launching costs about $20,000."
"So far, Hamas and other Gaza militants have fired more than 420 rockets toward Israel in three days of fighting. The military says it has shot down 90 of those, including several over Tel Aviv and central Israel." “If we keep up what we are doing, there is a good chance that we will be able to lower the ratio to one death for every 10,000 rockets fired,” he said. [ In other words low death rates are expected]
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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iron_Dome, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iron_Dome#Effectiveness"In comparison with other air defense systems, the effectiveness rate of Iron Dome is very high. Defense consultant Steven Zaloga stated that Iron Dome's destruction of 90 percent of missiles it targeted is 'an extremely high level', above that usually expected for air defense systems.Slate reported that the effectiveness rate is "unprecedented" in comparison with earlier systems such as the Patriot missile defence system. During Operation Protective Edge Iron Dome's interceptors were claimed to have struck down 87% of their targets."
"In November 2012, during Operation Pillar of Defense, the Iron Dome's effectiveness was estimated by Israeli officials at between 75 and 95 percent. "
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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Civil_defense_in_Israel#Warning_systems
"Air raid sirens used are typically sounded to warn of air raids or missile attacks on civilian population."
"According to the 1951 civil defense law, all homes, residential buildings and industrial buildings in Israel are required to have bomb shelters. However, several homes or residential buildings may make use of a single shelter jointly."
