Updated 2/27/2015 6/27/2018 4/23/2019
A text or individual makes a 'prophecy' for an event. The event came to occur. Thus the text must be of divine origin or the individual had divine information. Thus, God exists.
(I am using the term God to include something supernatural.)
Related posts are Proof of God from Jewish Survival, Suffering and the Bible Predictor ; Proof of God from Guarantees or Holy Sage Statements ; Proof of God from Israel ; and a series of posts began with Proof of God from Fallow.
Many ancient cultures had 'prophets'.
Section One will discuss the requirements for a text passage(s) or individual statement(s) to qualify as a prophecy. A failure to match any of the requirements disqualifies the text passage(s) or individual statement(s) from being considered evidence of a prophecy. There may be some overlap amongst the requirements.
Section Two will apply the requirements to Bible passages that are claimed by some Orthodox Jews and others proves the Torah is Divine.
Section One - Prophecy requirements
1) Open Ended. The prophecy must not be open ended or something inevitable. For example ‘There will be a great flood in China.' Given enough time a flood may occur in China.
2) Vagueness. The event being prophesied cannot be vague. The event must not be subject to retroactive interpretation so that many different outcomes may fit the event. For example 'a great war will erupt in Europe.' Many great wars could qualify.
3) Impressiveness. The prophecy must be impressive. For example. ‘A great ruler Joe will arise in the North America'. Joe is a common name and given enough time a Joe (or a variant of the name Joe) may become a ruler someplace in North America. By luck or chance a 'prophecy' can become fulfilled.
Could a reservoir of available knowledge allow a text or individual to make a prediction that has a good chance of occurring. Consider a geographic region gathering momentum towards becoming independent. If a text or individual makes the prophecy of nationhood that actually does become fulfilled, it would not be impressive. Or consider a nation surrounded by numerous powerful enemies. The prophecy is 'the nation will succumb to a violent destruction.’
4) Prophecy Date. We must be certain the date of the prophecy of an event is made before the event occurred. We must be certain the prophecy was not modified or written after the event.
5) Controllability. The event being predicted cannot be susceptible to being controlled. This is similar to self-fulfilling prophecy wherein there is control of the event's occurrence or the possibility of influencing the chance of it occurring.
6) Fulfillment. A prophecy is made for a certain described event. Yet the outcome does not match the details of the description of the event.
7) False Prophecies. If the text or individual makes many prophecies, were any not fulfilled ? If so, it suggests the non divine nature of the holy text, or the individual lacked supernaturally derived information. It suggests chance may have played a role regarding prophecies that are fulfilled.
8) Intent. It must be certain from the holy text verses or from the individual making the statement that an actual prophecy was intended. Are they just warnings ? Are they just opinions ? Are they propaganda for a certain agenda ? Are they to give hope ? An example - 'If nation XYZ does not worship the nation's God, it will be destroyed.'
9) Fulfillment of contingent conditions. Some prophecies are contingent on fulfillment of certain conditions. Have those conditions been met ? Is it even possible to evaluate if the conditions have been met ?
For example - 'Unless America repents, a disaster will strike it'. How can we evaluate if America repents or not ? What percentage must repent to avoid the disaster ? If the disaster occurs, defenders of the prophecy will say it was because America did not repent. If the disaster does not occur they will say America repented 'enough', or God works in mysterious ways.
{ETA 4/23/2019 10) Recording Bias -see Proof of God From Prophecy Part 4 }
Some times there may be a 'prophecy' about a past event. This would be similar to my Proof of God from Secrets in Holy Texts . We mention here that this kind of backward looking prophecy requires that the 'past event' be something that could not be known to the book or person making the prophecy.
Every ‘prophecy’ offered as evidence of something supernatural suffers from one or more flaws. Some readers may disagree with some of the standards as being too stringent. Considering we are using prophecy to establish supernatural things, stringency is required.
{I have been informed of this write up Prophecy For Dummies which
explains why you too should be skeptical of prophecies and the shenanigans used
by 'prophets' and people arguing for and defending amazing true prophecies. This
just the index so visit the site for the details.
1.
Mission-Critical Principles: the Prophet’s arsenal.
1a. Retroactive Shoehorning: a Prophet’s best
friend.
1b. Vaticinium ex Eventu:
After-the-fact prophecy.
1c. The
Law of Large Numbers: 1 in a million is all you need with a million
prophecies.
1d. Predicting the
Obvious: Case studies in "duh."
1e. False Fulfillment: Don’t let the facts stop
you.
1f. Self-Fulfilling
Prophecies: "They make it possible."
1g. Confirmation Bias: Make them squeal with select
fulfillment.
1h. Wishful Thinking:
Play off their dreams, hopes and fears for greater success.
1i. Dealing with Doubts: Reconciling Prophet Guilt
Syndrome.
1j. Prophecy Aids:
Dressing up both Prophecy and Fulfillment.
2. Damage Control: the general anti-skeptic
FAQ.
2a. Specifics, Dates and
Deadlines: a Prophet’s bane.
2b.
Unfalsifiable Escape Hatches: Preventing demonstrable prophecy
failures.
2c. Unexpected
Difficulties/Apologetics: Apologizing for failed prophecy.
3. Concluding Remarks.
3a. Prophecy Verification Criteria: Avoid getting duped
by other Prophets.}
Section Two - a Sample Torah Prophecy
Some Orthodox Jews and others argue the rise of Modern Israel is fulfillment of a Biblical Prophecy - Deuteronomy 30 - passages cited below.
{Indeed, the rise of Modern Israel after 2000 years appears remarkable. Though this post is about prophecy I will briefly discuss this remarkable event. First related discussion is found in my posts Proof of God from Jewish Survival, Suffering and the Bible Predictor , Proof of God from Israel.
In addition, remarkable historical events do not prove god(s). It would be an argument from ignorance or incredulity. Moreover, there are natural explanations that can account for many remarkable events of history. Discussion providing plausible reasons for the rise of Modern Israel are also found throughout this post.
{Lets read the prescient words and wisdom from one of the greatest Jewish Philosophers
A Theological-Political Treatise [Part I], by Benedict of Spinoza (born 1632) Translator: R. H. M. Elwes
(99) As to their [Jews] continuance so long after dispersion and the loss of empire, there is nothing marvellous in it, for they so separated themselves from every other nation as to draw down upon themselves universal hate, not only by their outward rites, rites conflicting with those of other nations, but also by the sign of circumcision which they most scrupulously observe.
(100) That they have been preserved in great measure by Gentile hatred, experience demonstrates.
(101) When the king of Spain formerly compelled the Jews to embrace the State religion or to go into exile, a large number of Jews accepted Catholicism.
(102) Now, as these renegades were admitted to all the native privileges of Spaniards, and deemed worthy of filling all honourable offices, it came to pass that they straightway became so intermingled with the Spaniards as to leave of themselves no relic
or remembrance.
(103) But exactly the opposite happened to those whom the
king of Portugal compelled to become Christians, for they always, though converted, lived apart, inasmuch as they were considered unworthy of any civic honours.
(104) The sign of circumcision is, as I think, so important, that I could persuade myself that it alone would preserve the nation for ever.
(105) Nay, I would go so far as to believe that if the foundations of their religion have not emasculated their minds they may even, if occasion offers, so changeable are human affairs, raise up their empire afresh, and that God may a second time elect them.
(106) Of such a possibility we have a very famous example in the Chinese.
(107) They, too, have some distinctive mark on their heads which they most scrupulously observe, and by which they keep themselves apart from everyone else, and have thus kept themselves during so many thousand years that they far surpass all other nations in antiquity.
(108) They have not always retained empire, but they have recovered it when lost, and doubtless will do so again after the spirit of the Tartars becomes relaxed through the luxury of riches and pride.
See (105) Spinoza's 'prophecy'}
{ETA 6/27/2018 Note: There have been massive deportations and exiles in history and some involved the eventual return of the 'people'. For example “In May 1944, the entire Crimean Tatar population of Crimea was exiled to Central Asia.” “Today, more than 250,000 Crimean Tatars have returned to their homeland,...” https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimean_Tatars
Another people that have been exiled are Chechens and many of them have returned ‘home’ see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chechens
Page 417 The Anchor Bible Zechariah by Meyers and Meyers 1992 - Regarding 14:2 “Into Exile” However it literally writes “in the exile”. Reflects the practice of deportation of subject peoples or parts thereof by imperial powers. NeoAssyrians perfected it. Used extensively by Babylonians and Persians. Deuteronomy describes the Babylonian conquest. In the exilic and post exilic contexts - a sense that a new age was on the verge of beginning if not already under way. Cyrus’s edict permitting return Judah 538 BCE and temples restoration and redictication in 516/515 BC viewed as mitiation of the future age. A kind of realized eschatology.
[ Regions where ‘deportation’ or scattering of people were not practiced would not result in those sort events occurring. In regions were such practices were imposed we would expect such things to happen. Nothing miraculous about making such a prediction and it occurring. Moreover, there have been scatterings of people other than Jews who eventually come back to their homeland.] }
Deuteronomy 30:1 And it shall come to pass, when all these things are come upon thee, the blessing and the curse, which I have set before thee, and thou shalt bethink thyself among all the nations, whither the LORD thy God hath driven thee, 2 and shalt return unto the LORD thy God, and hearken to His voice according to all that I command thee this day, thou and thy children, with all thy heart, and with all thy soul; 3 that then the LORD thy God will turn thy captivity, and have compassion upon thee, and will return and gather thee from all the peoples, whither the LORD thy God hath scattered thee. 4 If any of thine that are dispersed be in the uttermost parts of heaven, from thence will the LORD thy God gather thee, and from thence will He fetch thee. 5 And the LORD thy God will bring thee into the land which thy fathers possessed, and thou shalt possess it; and He will do thee good, and multiply thee above thy fathers. 6 And the LORD thy God will circumcise thy heart, and the heart of thy seed, to love the LORD thy God with all thy heart, and with all thy soul, that thou mayest live. 7 And the LORD thy God will put all these curses upon thine enemies, and on them that hate thee, that persecuted thee. 8 And thou shalt return and hearken to the voice of the LORD, and do all His commandments which I command thee this day. 9 And the LORD thy God will make thee over-abundant in all the work of thy hand, in the fruit of thy body, and in the fruit of thy cattle, and in the fruit of thy land, for good; for the LORD will again rejoice over thee for good, as He rejoiced over thy fathers; 10 if thou shalt hearken to the voice of the LORD thy God, to keep His commandments and His statutes which are written in this book of the law; if thou turn unto the LORD thy God with all thy heart, and with all thy soul. {S} 11 For this commandment which I command thee this day, it is not too hard for thee, neither is it far off. 12 It is not in heaven, that thou shouldest say: 'Who shall go up for us to heaven, and bring it unto us, and make us to hear it, that we may do it?' 13 Neither is it beyond the sea, that thou shouldest say: 'Who shall go over the sea for us, and bring it unto us, and make us to hear it, that we may do it?' 14 But the word is very nigh unto thee, in thy mouth, and in thy heart, that thou mayest do it. {S} 15 See, I have set before thee this day life and good, and death and evil, 16 in that I command thee this day to love the LORD thy God, to walk in His ways, and to keep His commandments and His statutes and His ordinances; then thou shalt live and multiply, and the LORD thy God shall bless thee in the land whither thou goest in to possess it. 17 But if thy heart turn away, and thou wilt not hear, but shalt be drawn away, and worship other gods, and serve them; 18 I declare unto you this day, that ye shall surely perish; ye shall not prolong your days upon the land, whither thou passest over the Jordan to go in to possess it. 19 I call heaven and earth to witness against you this day, that I have set before thee life and death, the blessing and the curse; therefore choose life, that thou mayest live, thou and thy seed; 20 to love the LORD thy God, to hearken to His voice, and to cleave unto Him; for that is thy life, and the length of thy days; that thou mayest dwell in the land which the LORD swore unto thy fathers, to Abraham, to Isaac, and to Jacob, to give them. {P}
I will argue the alleged prophecy violates or could potentially violate at least one of the prophecy requirements. My list is only a sample of the potential violations.
Violation of 1) Open Ended
Given sufficient duration, a country can lose it’s independence, regain it, lose it again etc:
Violation of 2) Vagueness
Was the prophecy referring to returning from the first exile or some other exile ? See Violation of 4) Prophecy Date
Moreover, there are Chassidic (Ultra Orthodox Jewish) denominations who do not view the rise of Modern Israel as the fulfillment of Torah prophecy. In fact, some of them even whore after and consort with Israel's enemies. This is where theologians will debate and tell us what the Torah 'really' means.
Violation of 4) Prophecy Date
Verse 1 - 'And it shall come to pass, when all these things are come upon thee, the blessing and the curse, which I have set before thee...'
The Torah may have been redacted during the exile and so 'these things' may have already came to pass.
If the Torah was redacted within temporal proximity of the first exile or during the exile, then the promise of eventual return could be propaganda. In fact, the Torah may well be referring to a return from the first exile. This is what many Bible Scholars agree on. I will provide only a sampling.
From the book - Self Fulfilling Prophecy - by Jacob Neusner 1987
Page 1 - Regarding the Exile beginning 586 BC: At the that time the exiles, drew together whatever stories, laws, prophecies and other writings and produced the 5 Books of Moses. The experience of the Exile became part of the Torah in that the promise of the land of Israel is conditional.
Page 20 "It was only after the destruction of the first Temple of Jerusalem in 586 B.C. that the Torah, that is, the five books of Moses, came into being. A pastiche of received stories, some old, some new, all revised for the purpose of the final authors. It was in the aftermath of the destruction of that Temple and the later restoration of the exiles to the land that the authors wrote the origins of Israel, the Jewish people."
"From the exile in Babylon in 586 B.C., the authors of the Torah recast Israel's history into the story of the conditional existence of the people; their existence was measured in their possession of the land on condition of God's favor. Everything depended on carrying out a contract: do this, get that, do not do this, do not get that - and nothing formed a given and nothing was unconditional."
From Jewish Publication Society Deuteronomy Jeffrey Tigay 1996
Page 432 - Discusses Deuteronomy 4:29-31; 30:1-10 and goes on to explain they were probably not part of the original text but were interpolated during the exile to assure the Jews of that time that if they abandon sinning and return to God, he would return them to their homeland.
However, Deut 30 was written before the rise of Modern Israel. And most bible scholars would probably say before the end of the first Exile.
Violation of 5) Controllability
In the ancient near east certain god(s) were often associated with certain regions. This was also true for ancient Israel, but eventually Yahweh/El was freed from a specific region, perhaps as a result of the first exile and destruction of the first Temple. The Jews believed there was a special relationship between the Jews, God, and the promised land. Many still do. After an exile the hope of return developed in full force. It was that hope that leads to self fulfilling prophecy.
It was not that a God had any role in the survival of the 'Jewish' people. Rather the 'Jewish' people's belief in the Torah and God helped preserve them. In other words, it was their belief that eventually God would bring them out of exile/diaspora back to the promised land as per certain Torah passages. The hope that redemption was just around the corner allowed them survive trials and tribulations. The Rabbinic tradition added the promise of rewards in an afterlife. This also provided comfort and hope to survive trials and tribulations. In short, the Priests and Rabbis evolved theology that would help Jews survive.
{Myths and Facts A Guide to the Arab - Israeli Conflict by Mitchell Barb 2006 edition
Page 1 “ A common misperception is that all the Jews were forced into the Diaspora by the Romans after the destruction of the second temple in Jerusalem in the year 70 C.E. and then, 1,800 years later, suddenly returned to Palestine demanding their country back. In reality, the Jewish people have maintained ties to their historic homeland for more than 3,700 years.”
“Even after the destruction of the second Temple in Jerusalem, and the beginning of the exile, Jewish life in the land of Israel continued and often flourished. Large communities were established in Jerusalem and Tiberias by the 9th century....” The book goes on to explain there was uninterrupted Jewish settlement from the time of Joshua onward.
Page 8 - Late 19th century antisemitism in Eastern Europe and Russia stimulate Jewish immigration to Palestine. Simultaneously - a wave of Jews from Yemen, Morocco, Irag, Turkey motivated by the dream of the ‘Return to Zion’ and a fear of intolerance.}
Violation of 6) Fulfillment
Verse 3 - It is likely some of the 10 lost tribes are lost forever. They have not been gathered in as per prophecy. Millions of Jews still reside outside Israel.
Violation of 7) False Prophecies
A valid argument may be made there are ‘prophecies’ in the Tenach that have not been fulfilled. This would require a long post.
Violation of 8) Intent
The Torah is making vague threats and rewards. Some of them are associated with ancient near east contracts. The rewards are most likely meant to influence behavior or give hope. (See Jewish Survival, Suffering and Bible Predictor. Also see above - Tigay and Neusner in Violation of 4), 5)). Though the Jews were in exile, God would redeem them if only they maintained there separateness and returned to the code.
Violation of 9) Fulfillment of Contingent conditions
The rise of modern Israel is inconsistent with the Torah's 'prophecy'.
Verse 2-3 explain that if the Israelites return to the Lord and his laws God he will restore Israel's fortunes. But no such 'teshuva', meaning the return to the Lord and his laws ever occurred ! Rather the rise of Modern Israel was probably the result of long latent and overt anti-semitism in Europe which assisted in the birth of both secular Zionism and the Holocaust. After WWII there were many Jews displaced. The world, especially the powerful post WWII Christian nations thought a Jewish homeland would be a solution. Holocaust guilt and Christian theology likely played a role. Israel would also be a useful ally to the USA.
Continued Proof of God From Prophecy Part 2
This post is inspired by the 2014 conflict between Israel and Gaza. Similar reasoning can be used to refute other such arguments.
Very few Israelis have been killed by the thousand rockets fired by Hamas from Gaza. It must be a miracle and therefore a God (eta which is Yahweh) exists.
We have natural explanations that explain the low death rate and therefore reject this proof of god. Moreover, lucky runs in games of chance occur {eta 8/8/2014 meaning runs of low probability} and these do not prove God exists.
Support for most facts and figures found at end of post.
1) Israel has the sophisticated Iron Dome missile defense system which is 90% effective - it tracks the rocket and lets some fall if risk is low. Some of those rockets are duds.
2) Israel has an early warning system warning civilians who go to mandatory bomb shelters in homes.
3) Laying on the ground provides 80% (or more) decrease for chance of death from a Gaza rocket explosion.
4) Hamas fires technologically poor quality rockets - low payloads (and so the damage they can cause is much reduced) and they have low accuracy. If Hamas fired heavier payloads and with increased accuracy death rates would increase.
5) Many Israelis without shelters or in more hazardous areas temporally relocate to safer locations.
6) In war, from ancient times to modern - many religions and nations have claimed their god has performed a miracle for their team or for them as individuals. People look for explanations and patterns even for random events. It is a human brain problem.
7) And if by chance rockets do land and kill many Israelis will believers say God does not exist ? No, they will make up excuses for God. A good example is the holocaust and all the apologetics.
8) To prove a god is involved we need to compare the probability of god to the probability of people being killed by Gaza rockets. Given Hamas's rocket type, Israel's technology and civilian preparedness the latter probability is probably low. The probability of God is unknown, and arguably zero since we have no empirical evidence for gods and no valid philosophical arguments for gods. Therefore we accept the natural explanations.
9) By random chance Israel may be having a good run. [Persian Gulf War : 46 scuds were fired into Saudi Arabia yet only one Saudi security guard was killed. From http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scud . Should we argue it was Allah protecting Saudi Arabia ? ]
Sources and support ---------------------------------------------From "Israel’s ‘Iron Dome’ changes the face of battle" July 10, 2014 www.washingtonpost.com
"By shooting down more than 90 percent of its targets, the system is ensuring Israel’s decisive technological edge that has helped it operate virtually unhindered in Gaza."
"Iron Dome quickly recognizes the trajectory of incoming rockets and whether they are headed for major population centers. Those are shot down, while others are allowed to fall in empty fields to spare the hefty cost of firing the sophisticated interceptors. Local reports say each launching costs about $20,000."
"So far, Hamas and other Gaza militants have fired more than 420 rockets toward Israel in three days of fighting. The military says it has shot down 90 of those, including several over Tel Aviv and central Israel." “If we keep up what we are doing, there is a good chance that we will be able to lower the ratio to one death for every 10,000 rockets fired,” he said. [ In other words low death rates are expected]
------------------------------------------
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iron_Dome, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iron_Dome#Effectiveness"In comparison with other air defense systems, the effectiveness rate of Iron Dome is very high. Defense consultant Steven Zaloga stated that Iron Dome's destruction of 90 percent of missiles it targeted is 'an extremely high level', above that usually expected for air defense systems.Slate reported that the effectiveness rate is "unprecedented" in comparison with earlier systems such as the Patriot missile defence system. During Operation Protective Edge Iron Dome's interceptors were claimed to have struck down 87% of their targets."
"In November 2012, during Operation Pillar of Defense, the Iron Dome's effectiveness was estimated by Israeli officials at between 75 and 95 percent. "
--------------------------------------------------
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Civil_defense_in_Israel#Warning_systems
"Air raid sirens used are typically sounded to warn of air raids or missile attacks on civilian population."
"According to the 1951 civil defense law, all homes, residential buildings and industrial buildings in Israel are required to have bomb shelters. However, several homes or residential buildings may make use of a single shelter jointly."
Updated thru 7/29/2018 11/11/2018
Some people believe Jewish suffering and survival suggests a god. (The related bible predictor is discussed later on in this post.)
{From the book Ancient Israel in the Sinai by Hoffmeier 2005
Beginning on Page 79 "The Egyptians wrote history and understood events in the light of divine planning and intervention."; "Several studies have been made of Mesopotamian Literature to show there was a relationship between history and divine involvement in human affairs."}
The Jewish people have had a fair amount of suffering and more so for the European Jews, especially with the holocaust. The middle eastern Sephardic Jews have faired better, for example being better treated in Muslim controlled territories over all, and not suffering the holocaust as severely as European Jews of all types. In other words, not all Jewish sects have suffered terribly or any more than some non Jewish ethnic or religious groups. My goal is not to judge the relative degree to which ethnic groups, religions or nations have suffered. Lets assume as a whole the Jews have suffered terribly.
{ETA 11/11/2018 for some other peoples sufferings see for example https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Genocide_of_indigenous_peoples and https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Genocides_in_history and https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Armenian_Genocide https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rwandan_genocide
Does Jewish survival or Jewish suffering imply there is a (Jewish) god ? Besides being a non sequitur, many nations, religions and ethnic groups have suffered terribly and survived, while others did not survive. The latter case being arguably a worse outcome than for the Jewish people. The gypsies left their homeland about 1500 years ago and have survived. They have also suffered great deal persecution, suffered in the holocaust and have survived. Should we suggest this proves there is a gypsy god ?
The African Pygmy of the African Congo are essentially prehistoric and their culture has survived to this day. Moreover they have survived in Africa for thousands of years. Are the Pygmy god(s ?) protecting them and ensuring their survival and culture as a people and in their native land ?
Similarly, despite numerous campaigns to wipe out rats or cockroaches they have survived. Does this mean there is a God of the Rats or a God of the Cockroaches ? The answer is negative since there are natural explanations for both the gypsy and Jewish experience as well as for rats and and cockroaches. (The mention of rats and cockroaches is to make a point and there is no intent whatsoever to insult Jews or Gypsies.)
So why did the Jews suffer ?
Books have been written about it. Some of the reasons offered include xenophobia, racism, scapegoat theory, jews have different customs than the local population, saying they are god's chosen,
accused of being Christ killer, stole land from and slaughtered various ancient middle eastern tribes ( according to torah), maybe some jews offended their hosts, greedy neighbors wanted their homeland and just about any reason any other ethnic, religion or nation may have suffered.
{From https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Court_Jew
"Jews were sometimes assigned the role of local tax collectors. These roles built up a long-standing enmity between Jews and Christians, the results of which had far-reaching consequences in the history of European Jews."
"Prohibited from nearly every other trade, some Jews began to occupy an economic niche as moneylenders in the Middle Ages. Only they were allowed to take interest on loans, since—while the Church condemned usury universally—canon law was only applied to Christians and not to Jews. Eventually, a sizable sector of the European Jewish community were engaged in financial occupations, and the community was a financially highly successful part of the medieval economy. The religious restrictions on moneylending had inadvertently created a source of monopoly rents, causing profits associated with moneylending to be higher than they otherwise would have been."
[I can imagine people resenting tax collectors, money lenders and bankers which I suspect can give rise to antisemitism.] }
The Jews claim their God who has chosen them is superior to other Gods. That their religion is superior to the religions of others. The Jews would not adopt the gods of their conquerors.
The Jews separate from others. For example can not eat meals of their gentile neighbors, cant marry gentiles etc: This can be interpreted negatively by the gentiles.
A significant proportion of the leadership or active/outspoken individuals of the Leftists, Liberals, Anarchists, Communists, and Socialist were Jewish. For example, the early Russian communist leadership, anarchist Emma Goldman, Abbie Hoffman in the 1960's USA, the civil rights movement in the USA, and today the Socialist leaning Presidential candidate Bernie Sanders. This may alienate some people. Let me be clear. I am not saying most Jews belong to such categories, merely that many outspoken members or leaders happen to have been Jewish. Nor am I making a value judgments regarding those categories.
Why did Jews survive ?
They relocated, went underground (for example in Spain), they bribed, begged, used political machinations, made positive contributions to society, etc:. After they lost Israel, they evolved and changed with the situation. They kept their culture alive, they indoctrinated their children from a very young age. Being in
a ghetto just made them hunker down - there was no place else to go. Not every one wanted to kill the Jews. In other words there was no world wide plan to kill Jews.
The Jews had spread to many different geographic regions so it would have required a coordinated effort to exterminate the Jews. But many of the countries the Jews lived in were not on friendly terms with each other, nor did all those countries simultaneously want to kill the Jews. It was inevitable that many Jews would thus survive.
They enjoyed many peaceful times as well.
Three more explanations for jewish survival: a) Their belief that god will eventually restore their kingdom and this gave hope and resolve. b) Being an outsider as for example during the Babylonian exile gave the jews the opportunity to advance within the government hierarchy because they had no local obligations and could give advice untainted by the diverse native constituent interests. c) Since they had different beliefs and even skills than the native population they could fill niches unavailable to the locals. Items a) and b) have been advocated in the book The Bible and the Ancient Near East by Gordon and Rendsburg 1953).
It does not require that a God had any role in the survival of the 'Jewish' people. Rather the 'Jewish' people's belief in the Torah and God helped preserve them. In other words, it was their belief that eventually God would bring them out of exile/diaspora back to the promised land as per certain Torah passages. The hope that redemption was just around the corner allowed them survive trials and tribulations. The Rabbinic tradition added the promise of rewards in an afterlife. This also provided comfort and hope to survive trials and tribulations. In short, the Priests and Rabbis evolved theology that would help Jews survive.
{Lets read the prescient words and great wisdom from one of the greatest Jewish Philosophers
A Theological-Political Treatise [Part I], by Benedict of Spinoza (born 1632) Translator: R. H. M. Elwes
(99) As to their [Jews] continuance so long after dispersion and the loss of empire, there is nothing marvellous in it, for they so separated themselves from every other nation as to draw down upon themselves universal hate, not only by their outward rites, rites conflicting with those of other nations, but also by the sign of circumcision which they most scrupulously observe.
(100) That they have been preserved in great measure by Gentile hatred, experience demonstrates.
(101) When the king of Spain formerly compelled the Jews to embrace the State religion or to go into exile, a large number of Jews accepted Catholicism.
(102) Now, as these renegades were admitted to all the native privileges of Spaniards, and deemed worthy of filling all honourable offices, it came to pass that they straightway became so intermingled with the Spaniards as to leave of themselves no relic
or remembrance.
(103) But exactly the opposite happened to those whom the
king of Portugal compelled to become Christians, for they always, though converted, lived apart, inasmuch as they were considered unworthy of any civic honours.
(104) The sign of circumcision is, as I think, so important, that I could persuade myself that it alone would preserve the nation for ever.
(105) Nay, I would go so far as to believe that if the foundations of their religion have not emasculated their minds they may even, if occasion offers, so changeable are human affairs, raise up their empire afresh, and that God may a second time elect them.
(106) Of such a possibility we have a very famous example in the Chinese.
(107) They, too, have some distinctive mark on their heads which they most scrupulously observe, and by which they keep themselves apart from everyone else, and have thus kept themselves during so many thousand years that they far surpass all other nations in antiquity.
(108) They have not always retained empire, but they have recovered it when lost, and doubtless will do so again after the spirit of the Tartars becomes relaxed through the luxury of riches and pride. }
[ETA 3/23/2016 If I have not already mentioned these, here are other factors may play a role in Jewish Survival
* Antisemitism
* The Jews in general would not adopt the gods of their conquerors nor of the people they were in exile with. They considered other gods inferior or false.
* Family bonds
* Hope in this world - God eventually help them.
* Hope for reward in the next world.
* Jewish role in the economy of their hosts.
* Medieval Church had a theological interest of vanquished Israel
* The Jewish individual’s decision to live and survive as a Jew.}
But did the Jews really survive ? Depends what Jews means. Depends what "survives" means. The Jewish religion today is very likely not the same Jewish religion practiced in ancient Israel. (Consider the many "Jewish" sects and different interpretations.
Pharisees, Essenes, Sadducees, Karaites, Falashas, Rabbanic, and many others.) Also, the genetic make up of the Jews (if there ever was one) has been dramatically changed thru intermarriage/ rape and conversions to Judaism by some other peoples and assimilation (Jews leaving the "tribe"). So even the premise that the "Jews" have "survived" has to be better defined.
Rabbi Kelemen in his book Permission to Believe offers the solution to Jewish suffering and survival as Leviticus 26:3-39 (the Bible Predictor), that states god will punish jews if they break the commandments and protect them if they keep the commandments.
But I have provided plausible non supernatural explanations for Jewish suffering and survival. Even if somebody does not find these explanations satisfactory, it does not mean there is a god behind it. It could be fortuitous, and that would be a lot more plausible than positing a supernatural being. Lets examine Leviticus 26:3-39.
The verses seem more like broad warnings rather than a prediction.
The verses often have almost the exact wording of legal contracts in the ancient near east (ane) and therefore should not be considered prophecy anymore than the verses found in other ane contracts. They were admonishing threats for contract violation.
From the Commentary on the Torah with a New English Translation 2001 by Richard E, Friedman Page page 411 Regarding Leviticus 26 and Deuteronomy 28:
“The blessings and curses are not rewards and punishments. They are a formal part of the biblical covenants (Levit 26, Deut 28) - with exact parallels in legal contracts of the ancient near east.”
From the Jewish Publication Society Torah Commentary Leviticus by Baruch Levine 1989 beginning on page 275 Regarding Levit 26:3-46 “The Epilogue to the Holiness Code is patterned after other biblical blessings and curses and after other similar ancient near eastern compositions”. The author also writes concerning Leviticus 26 and Deuteronomy 28 epilogues that the Biblical curses and ancient near east curses are related in their diction. Levine offers several examples. These examples include among others - ‘scattering of the people’ common in ANE diction. The code of Hammurabi uses the same term. Levit 26:37 the inability to stand before enemies is paralleled in the vassal treaty of Esarhaddon: ‘may you not be able to stand before your enemies’. Levine writes it is clear even from the sample he provided (see his book for others) the epilogue represents a genre of ane literature.
How To Read The Bible James Kugel 2007 page 348-349 provide many comparisons Levit 26 and Deut 28 to the Vassal Treaty of Esarhaddon. Here are just a couple from his text..
From the Vassal Treaty of Esarhaddon “May all the gods...turn your ground into iron, so that no one may plow it. Just as rain does not fall from a bronze sky, so may rain and dew not come upon your fields and meadows.”
And so Deut 28:23 The sky over your head shall be copper, and the earth under you iron
and Levit 26:19:... and I will make your skies like iron, and your earth like copper.
From the Vassal Treaty of Esarhaddon “May Shamash....deprive you of the sight of your eyes, so that they will wander about in darkness.
Compare to Deut 28:28-29 The Lord will afflict you with madness, blindness, and confusion of mind, you shall grope about at noon as the blind people grope in darkness, but you shall be unable to find your way.
Kugel writes “All these resemblances suggest to scholars that the imprecations at the end of Leviticus and Deuteronomy were themselves rooted in the standard curses of the ancient Near East - not only the general idea of such curses, but the specific things the treaties invoked.” }
From the Anchor Bible 2011 Leviticus by Milgrom Regarding Levit 26:33 I will scatter.. on page 2322 Violation of the Code of Hammurabi also threatened scattering people.
{Jewish Publication Society Deuteronomy by Tigay 1996.
Page 491 "Siege, cannibalism, and exile were common experiences in the ancient world. They are mentioned in ancient near east treaties...".
Page 495 From Hammurabi - "May Enlil...order...the destruction of his city, the dispersion of his people."
"May Enlil order...the scattering of his people."
From the Vassal treaties of Esarhaddan" "Keep this treaty...lest...you deliver your land to destruction, your people to be deported." Tigay lists many other parallels and states: "The forgoing parallels make it abundantly clear that the promises and predictions of blessings and curses were a common feature of ancient parctice and literature." }
{From Essential Papers on Israel - Greenspahn Editor 1991
Page 15, 109,110 Some of the curses in Deut 28 are also found in Esarhadden treaty. (Assurbanipal was Esarhadden successor. There was ab Arab revolt and Assur states the curses in the Treaty are brought down on the rebels bythe gods of Assyria. The text goes on the people of Arubu will ask why has evil befallen us ? And wil respond, because they violated oaths of th egod Assur and sinned against Assurbanipal King of the Beloved Enlil. Thus parallels Deut 29:23. [My point is the Assyria texts are no more a prophecy that Deut 28].}
Furthermore, those versus may have just been propaganda.
Also, the predictor is stating the obvious, religion can be a uniting factor, i.e united we stand divided we fall.
The predictor talks about rain controlled by god. Same for fruit bearing miracles. The verse(s) are saying make god happy by following the commandments and in return you get all these goodies. This is similar to many ancient superstitions such as sacrifice to the gods to obtain favors. Seems the Torah is repeating ancient near east superstitions.
Rabbi Kelemen's argument that Leviticus 26:3-39 makes valid "predictions" needs to be fleshed out much more into a testable hypothesis. This is almost impossible. For example: how do you figure out just when jews are not keeping enough laws and which
specific ones to bring on gods wrath. When did the non observance occur - did god actually keep track of every commandment non obeyed by every jew in every second. Are there examples when jews did follow the law yet suffered anyway ? Are there examples when jews did not follow the law yet did not suffer ? You
have to test each separate prediction - like no rain, no fruit etc; Because maybe jews get killed, but it rains anyway. We can not go back in time to see when it did or did not rain. We have to go back and examine each time the jews suffered. You get the point.
Also, nobody has shown the bible predictor to be valid from a statistical viewpoint, therefore it can not be accepted.
Furthermore, since the bible has a lot of nonsense
(contradictions, anachronisms, doublets, myths like women coming from Adam's rib/ (side in a minority of translations), talking snakes...) the burden of proof is that much greater on the person saying we can deduce god from it. The text seems all too human.
Also, we have to examine every time the bible makes a prediction and see how well it was fulfilled. Kelemen's book only focused on one passage. If the over all predictive value of the Bible is poor then it could just be luck one passage got it right more times than other passages.
Rabbi Kelemen even asserts the preposterous Idea that the holocaust occurred because many Jews began to abandon
orthodox judaism. There are books written about the causes of WWII and the holocaust. The loss of WWI and heavy burden placed on the German people after WWI, world wide depression and German hyperinflation, xenophobia, racism, scapegoat theory, religious bigotry, many thought jews may have helped cause
Germany's loss in WWI, some jews affiliation with communists, antisemitism had prevailed in Europe for centuries, many Germans believed The Protocols of the Elders of Zion, Jews had different dress and customs, hatred was being used to unite a country, differences of Ideology,.....
We then deduce from Kelemens theory that god caused millions of innocent non Jewish people (as well as observant jews) to be killed, just because some Jews decided not to practice Orthodox Judaism. (Side note: There was no holocaust of the Jewish Community in the USA, and Orthodox Judaism was and still is a minority branch of Judaism in the USA. If Kelemen is correct then god should have heaped his wrath against the USA Jewish community, but did not.)
{ NOTE: Orthodox Jews were clearly the majority of the European Jews killed in the Shoah, somewhere between 50% and 70%. From page 22 Battling for Souls by Alex Grobman.}
We have two explanations of Jewish Suffering and Survival.
The bible predictor with god versus natural explanations. The more reasonable explanation is the latter. It explains the story in the context of human affairs and natural phenomena. The former explanation implies something supernatural and miracles which adds a level of unnecessary complexity. It creates more questions
and more unsolved problems than it solves.
{From The Bible and the Ancient Near East by Gordon and Rendsburg 1953
Page 264 "Long before Isaiah there had been a school of Egyptian prophecy that dealt with a punishment to Egypt for offending gods. The punishment was to be in terms of foreign domination, widespread destruction, and in social upheaval. whereby classes would no longer retain their former relationships. These woes would be terminated by a godly king would be victorious in temporal and spiritual affairs, so that he would inaugurate the divine order".
Page 249 Regarding Assyria 745 BCE "The god Assur had willed that his country and his King should achieve world domination; and all other gods, kings, and peoples had to be subservient to Assur's will."
s
[This should sound familiar to Orthodox Jews.] }
{ Page 176 The Evolution of God by Robert Wright 2009 "The Assyrians had laid waste to Babylon in the early seventh century....the Babylonians ascribed their catastrophe to their chief god's displeasure with them."
[Again, this should sound familiar to Orthodox Jews.] }
The interested reader may want to read the following articles at www.talkreason.org that address similar issues.
Do We Need God to Explain Jewish Survival
PROHIBITION TO THINK
Explaining the Unclear by the Incomprehensible
And the book Bondage of the Mind by Gold.
{ From Gold - here are some salient issues regarding Jewish Survival:
A) The Basques have survived even in their own homeland. The Parsi and Armenians have also survived. Are we compelled to posit a God to explain why those cultures and peoples survived for such long periods ?
B) Any people's history can be described as highly improbable. Consider the course of the British history where they defeat Rome and go on to become a world empire.
C) Any given 10 year period of Jewish history requires no miracles for it's explanation. Rather each period can be explained thru natural explanations and events. So by adding up all the 10 year periods you have natural explanations for the entire Jewish history. }
Continued in Part Two
Related Posts Proof of God from Prophecy , Proof of God from Israel
